Uganda’s peak dry season has taken an unexpected turn, with intensifying February rains sweeping across much of the country and prompting a nationwide flood and landslide alert.
Traditionally marked by hot, dry, and sunny conditions, February signals the tail end of the December–February dry spell.
This year, however, sustained downpours have drenched western, central, and eastern Uganda, particularly areas within the Lake Victoria Basin, southwestern districts, and the Elgon highlands, defying seasonal norms and raising fresh concerns about climate volatility.
In its latest advisory, the Ministry of Water and Environment warned that heavy rainfall is expected to continue through February 28, with showers likely to spread to most parts of the country before gradually easing toward the end of the month.
“The current rainfall being observed over parts of the country is expected to continue and spread to most parts of the country, with a slight reduction towards the end of February,” said Dr Alfred Okot Okidi, the Ministry’s Permanent Secretary.
Meteorologists attribute the unusual rainfall to large-scale global atmospheric systems. The primary driver is a strong phase of the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a tropical weather system that influences rainfall patterns across the globe.
Currently positioned over East Africa, the MJO has enhanced precipitation over Uganda and remained relatively stationary, prolonging heavy showers.
At the same time, high-pressure systems over southern Africa, notably the St. Helena High and the Mascarene High, have shifted the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone northwards, effectively pushing the regional rain belt closer to Uganda and reinforcing rainfall activity.
Regional projections from the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) support the outlook, forecasting above-normal rainfall across Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and northern Tanzania through late February.
Short-term models suggest the enhanced rainfall could extend into March, potentially blending into the onset of the main wet season.
The Ministry projects continued enhanced rainfall over western Uganda, central districts, especially those surrounding Lake Victoria, including Kampala, and eastern sub-regions such as Elgon and Bukedi.
Northern Uganda is expected to receive moderate and more isolated showers. Toward the end of the forecast window, heavier rainfall may concentrate over Kigezi, parts of central Uganda, and the Elgon ranges, while some western and northern areas could see a gradual reduction.
In a letter signed by Commissioner for Disaster Preparedness Davis Mwenyi, authorities warned that low-lying and flood-prone communities face heightened risks of flash floods.
Urban centres, particularly Kampala, could experience drainage overflow, transport disruptions, and temporary business interruptions.
Mountainous terrain, including Mount Elgon and the Kigezi highlands, faces an elevated threat of landslides, mudslides, and rockfalls due to saturated soils.
Strong winds and isolated hailstorms may also accompany the storms, increasing the potential for property damage and crop loss.
Mwenyi noted that previous assessments by the OPM and the National Emergency Coordination and Operations Centre show that floods and landslides account for a significant share of weather-related displacement, particularly in the Elgon and Rwenzori regions.
The alert aligns with obligations under the National Policy for Disaster Preparedness and Management (2010) and the National Climate Change Act, 2021, which mandate early warning dissemination and coordinated response to climate-related hazards.
Public Advisory and Preparedness Authorities have urged residents in flood-prone areas to avoid crossing flooded roads and bridges and to clear drainage channels around homes and businesses to reduce water accumulation.
Communities living on steep slopes in Elgon and Kigezi have been advised to watch for early warning signs of landslides, such as cracks in the soil or leaning trees, and to comply promptly with evacuation directives if issued.
District disaster management committees have been directed to inspect high-risk zones and activate contingency plans. Climate Volatility on Display.
While the rains present immediate safety risks, officials say they also offer agricultural opportunities. The government has encouraged farmers to use the moisture for early garden preparation, planting food crops and fruit trees, and restoring degraded land
. However, experts caution that excessive rainfall, particularly when accompanied by hailstorms, may damage crops, accelerate soil erosion in hilly terrain, and disrupt food supply chains.
Uganda has in recent years experienced increasingly erratic weather patterns, swinging between prolonged dry spells and intense rainfall episodes, trends climate scientists associate with broader climate variability.
The arrival of sustained rainfall during what is traditionally the driest period of the year underscores that growing unpredictability.
The Ministry of Water and Environment and the Office of the Prime Minister say they will continue monitoring atmospheric developments and issue further updates as conditions evolve, as the country braces for a potentially wet and disruptive close to February.
