Uganda’s coffee prices are showing signs of recovery, with global Robusta and Arabica futures recording significant gains amid concerns that El Niño weather conditions could disrupt production in major coffee-growing countries.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Industry and Fisheries (MAAIF), in its Daily Coffee Market Analysis Report for Monday, October 19, 2026, reported gains in both London Robusta and New York Arabica futures, while local farmgate prices remain as high as Shs16,000 per kilogram for some Arabica varieties.
The rebound offers a positive signal for Uganda’s coffee value chain, although the extent to which international price movements will translate into higher farmgate prices remains to be seen.
Robusta coffee futures rise by $41 per tonne
London Robusta futures registered gains across all reported trading positions, with the January 2027 contract recording the highest price among the listed contracts.
According to the MAAIF report, the January 2027 contract closed at $3,405 per tonne, gaining $41 from the previous closing price. The March 2027 contract rose by $39 to close at $3,378 per tonne.
The May 2027 contract increased to $3,364 per tonne, while the July 2027 contract reached $3,350 per tonne. The September 2027 contract closed at $3,332 per tonne.
The gains indicate renewed strength in the Robusta market, with traders closely monitoring potential weather-related threats to global coffee supplies.
Vietnam, the world’s largest Robusta coffee producer, faces concerns that an El Niño weather pattern could trigger drought in key coffee-growing regions later this year and in early 2027.
Such conditions could affect production and tighten global supplies, putting further upward pressure on prices if the anticipated weather disruptions materialise.
Arabica prices surge by 10.80 US cents
Arabica futures also recorded strong gains on the New York market, with the December 2026 contract rising by 10.80 US cents per pound to close at 305.60 US cents per pound.
The March 2027 contract gained 9.15 US cents to settle at 294.50 US cents per pound.
Other reported contracts also advanced, with May 2027 closing at 290.50 US cents per pound, July at 287.50 US cents and September at 284.75 US cents per pound.
The rally comes amid concerns that El Niño-related weather conditions could delay vital rains in Brazil, the world’s leading Arabica producer, potentially affecting the next harvest.
The combination of possible drought in Vietnam and delayed rainfall in Brazil has heightened market sensitivity to weather forecasts and the outlook for global coffee production.
However, the anticipated impact remains a risk rather than a confirmed production loss.
How much is coffee selling for in Uganda?
Despite the movement in international futures markets, coffee farmers in Uganda continue to receive different prices depending on the variety, grade and processing stage of their produce.
MAAIF’s indicative farmgate price ranges for the week are as follows:
- Arabica parchment: Shs15,000–Shs16,000 per kilogram.
- Clean Arabica (Drugar): Shs15,000–Shs15,500 per kilogram.
- Fair Average Quality (FAQ) Robusta: Shs11,500–Shs12,500 per kilogram.
- Kiboko (dried Robusta cherries): Shs5,000–Shs5,500 per kilogram.
The figures show that Arabica parchment commands the highest indicative farmgate price among the listed categories, reaching Shs16,000 per kilogram.
Clean Arabica, also known as Drugar, trades at up to Shs15,500 per kilogram, while FAQ Robusta reaches Shs12,500 per kilogram.
Kiboko, which consists of dried Robusta cherries, fetches a lower price of between Shs5,000 and Shs5,500 per kilogram.
The differences reflect the distinct coffee varieties and the forms in which the produce is sold.
Robusta and Arabica export grades post different prices
The ministry’s indicative prices for October 19 also show substantial differences between coffee grades.
Robusta Screen 18 was quoted at 170.79 US cents per pound, equivalent to approximately Shs15,562 per kilogram at the exchange rate of Shs4,133 per US dollar used in the report.
Screen 15 was quoted at 165.79 US cents per pound, equivalent to Shs15,106 per kilogram, while Screen 12 stood at 162.79 US cents per pound, or Shs14,833 per kilogram.
For Arabica, Bugisu AA was quoted at 305.60 US cents per pound, equivalent to Shs27,845 per kilogram. Bugisu A stood at 304.60 US cents per pound, or Shs27,754 per kilogram.
Bugisu PB was also quoted at 304.60 US cents per pound, while Bugisu B stood at 302.60 US cents per pound. Wugar was quoted at 303.60 US cents per pound.
Drugar was listed at 284.60 US cents per pound, equivalent to Shs25,932 per kilogram.
These indicative grade prices are distinct from the farmgate ranges paid for coffee delivered by farmers. They should therefore not be interpreted as the amounts every farmer receives at the farm gate.
Registered coffee sales recorded on October 16
The report’s registered sales figures for October 16 show that Robusta Screen 15 recorded the largest reported sales volume among the listed categories, at 5,695 bags of 60 kilograms each.
Robusta Screen 12 followed with 3,741 bags, while Screen 18 recorded 2,757 bags.
On the Arabica side, 350 bags of Bugisu A and 740 bags of Drugar were recorded as sold. No sales volumes were listed for Bugisu AA, Bugisu PB, Bugisu B or Wugar.
The sales figures provide a snapshot of recorded market activity, although they do not represent total national coffee production or all coffee traded in Uganda.
What the recovery means for Uganda’s coffee sector
The simultaneous rise in Robusta and Arabica futures points to growing concern about the reliability of supplies from major producing countries.
For Uganda, where coffee is an important export commodity and source of income for farming households, sustained international price strength could provide opportunities for exporters and farmers.
However, the gains in futures markets do not automatically translate into equivalent increases in local farmgate prices. Domestic prices also depend on coffee quality, processing, exchange rates, transport costs, buyer demand and the timing of purchases.
Market participants will therefore be watching developments in Vietnam and Brazil closely, particularly rainfall patterns and forecasts for the coming months.
For now, the October 19 report offers a cautiously positive signal: international coffee futures have rebounded, while Uganda’s indicative farmgate prices range from Shs5,000 per kilogram for Kiboko to Shs16,000 for Arabica parchment.
Whether the recovery will be sustained will depend largely on global supply developments and how international market movements feed through to Uganda’s domestic coffee trade.
