A comprehensive new nationwide poll has projected a commanding first-round victory for President Yoweri Museveni in the 2026 elections, revealing a stark disconnect between the large crowds at opposition rallies and actual voter support for his main rival, Robert Kyagulanyi, popularly known as Bobi Wine.
The poll, conducted by Mash Research Africa in October, surveyed 9,812 participants across all regions and demographics. It places the National Resistance Movement (NRM) candidate firmly in the lead with 64.8% of the vote.
Bobi Wine of the National Unity Platform (NUP) trails distantly at 27.2%, with other candidates combined polling at 8%.
This 38-point lead represents the widest margin recorded in independent polling since the 2021 election and points to a comfortable landslide for President Museveni if current trends hold.
Regional Dominance and an “Opposition Quarantine”
The poll dismantles the notion of a competitive race, revealing that Museveni wins every single region by double-digit margins. He commands overwhelming support in the North (74%) and West (70%), his political backyard. Crucially, he also leads in the Central region (64%) and the East (56%), areas often considered more favourable to the opposition.
Analysts from Mash Research Africa described the opposition as “geographically quarantined,” noting that Bobi Wine’s support is concentrated in a few urban enclaves like Kampala, Wakiso, and Jinja, with “no evidence of a rural breakout.”
Despite the hype surrounding his campaign tours, the data suggests his message is failing to resonate beyond his core urban base.
The Age Divide: Passion of Youth vs. the Discipline of Age
The poll identifies a critical demographic schism. While Bobi Wine performs strongest among voters aged 18-30 (37%), he still trails Museveni (54%) even within this group. His support collapses dramatically among older voters.
Museveni’s backing increases steadily with age, becoming overwhelming among those over 51, reaching 89% among voters aged 71 and above.
This highlights a consistent trend: as Ugandans grow older, their loyalty to the NRM solidifies, while the “passionate but fluctuating” support for Bobi Wine among the youth lacks the electoral discipline to pose a serious national threat.
Why Museveni Holds Firm, Why Bobi Wine Falters
The reasons for support reveal a fundamental contrast in the candidates’ appeal.
Museveni’s base is anchored in stability-driven factors: 72% cite security and peace as his primary achievement, while 57% value his experience and ability to stabilise the country.
In contrast, Bobi Wine’s support is driven more by emotion and a desire for change. A quarter of his supporters (26%) cite his youthfulness as a major factor, with candidate resonance and party loyalty being other key drivers.
His perceived record on good leadership and the economy rank as secondary motivations.
Furthermore, the poll indicates a consolidation of Museveni’s base since 2021, with 43% of his supporters saying their backing has increased.
Bobi Wine, meanwhile, faces more volatility, with a higher share of his 2021 voters reporting decreased support over time.
A Tale of Two Campaigns
The poll paints a clear picture of two contrasting campaigns: one with a deep, structurally strong, and stable coalition across the country, and another reliant on the volatile energy of urban youth.
While Bobi Wine’s rallies may draw many people, the data suggests this has not translated into the broad-based support needed to challenge an incumbent whose base views him as the guarantor of security and stability.
The 2026 race, according to these findings, is defined by continuity versus a change that has yet to find a decisive foothold in the Ugandan electorate.
