Retired Lt Gen Tumukunde was on Tuesday arrested for holding an illegal meeting as he attempted to meet locals on his tour to consult Ugandans about his presidential candidacy.
It is the second time the former spy chief was put under bars, first happening in April, just weeks after he revealed that he would be joining those vying for the country’s top seat.
Following his arrest in April, Tumukunde was subsequently charged with treason and remanded to the Luzira Maximu Prison aka University of Understanding where he spent close to a month donning the infamous yellow uniform.
With all this, one would expect Tumukunde to be among social media’s top trends with many discussing and showing sympathy to the former intel boss.
However, despite his apparent persecution (according to his supporters), Tumukunde has not been able to generate sympathy from the Ugandan public that normally accompanies politicians who challenge President Yoweri Museveni when they get similar treatment. Politicians like ‘G.O.AT’ opposition leader, Kizza Besigye and new kid on the block, Bobi Wine.
At the prime of his opposition to Museveni, a Besigye arrest would be met with social media trends accompanied with condemnation from all and sundry.
A similar aura has greeted Bobi Wine whenever he has faced law enforcers starting with the Arua baptism that many say initiated him into opposition politics, an incident that almost brought Uganda to a standstill just like COVID19 has.
SO WHY TUMUKUNDE
Tumukunde’s decision to challenge Museveni for the country’s number one job is not the first time the man from Rukungiri is opposing the President.
At a political retreat in 2003, Tumukunde, in the presence of the president and his cabinet, argued against the impending removal of term limits that would give President Museveni the right to stand for re-election on an infinite basis. Tumukunde stated that this would be in direct contravention of the rights that they fought to establish and that he was not willing to take part in what he considered to be grossly unconstitutional behaviour. Predictably, this put him at loggerheads with the establishment and more so the president.
Political observers believe a number of reasons explain why Tumukunde who last week launched his ‘renewed Uganda’ promise in his attempts to capture the seat from his former boss, continues to be treated with suspicion despite him receiving almost equal treatment meted on opposition politicians by the state.
EX-SPY
The popular saying ‘once a spy, always a spy, continues to haunt Tumukunde and means many have reservations about his actions.
It should be recalled that Tumukunde once served as director general of the ISO, Uganda’s civil intelligence body. During his time at ISO, Tumukunde set up structures that returned ISO to being the country’s foremost Intelligence gathering body, just as he had done with CMI. The Internal Security Organisation became renowned for its efficient and effective approach towards intelligence and counter-terrorism.
As someone who has mastered the art of intelligence over the years and with talk of infiltration in the opposition, some they accuse government of doing, Tumukunde’s opposition has been treated with suspicion as many still cannot believe that a man of his calibre can actually genuinely oppose his former boss.
CLOSENESS TO THE STATE
One other reason that fuels suspicion and the lukewarm reception he received and continues to deal with among his opposition peers, is his closeness to the state. Tumukunde is said to be related to President Museveni through marriage. His wife Stella is said to be a cousin to First Lady Janet Museveni.
Although it is not his own making, this relationship means time and again, nervous members of Uganda’s opposition will always paint him as one who is not wholly with them hence the cold shoulder accorded to him.
EARLY TREATMENT OF OPPOSITION LEADERS
In the run up to the 2016 general elections, Tumukunde appeared to have been ‘rehabilitated’ after years of incarceration over statements he made at a radio that the army considered ‘harmful propaganda.
During the campaigns, HT as he has come to be known, spent time traveling the country, hunting for votes for his then boss, Museveni.
Tumukunde took many by shock after he landed a chopper at a campaign rally being addressed by then Presidential hopeful and former Premier, Amama Mbabazi.
Sources in the opposition, especially those who backed Amama’s candidacy say they are not ready to easily support the man who did such a thing they consider bizarre.
When he announced his candidacy, Amama reached out to members of the opposition in a bid to work out plans for a joint opposition candidate to take on Museveni. Sources add that Tumukunde has not done any better to allay any fears by reaching out to their leaders in similar manner.
THE X -FACTOR
Many in the opposition believe Tumukunde lacks that ‘12th player in a football game,’ the X factor that makes him continued to be shunned.
Besigye has over the years endeared him into the hearts of opposition supporters through his charisma, sometimes cultivated by his ability to say no to many Museveni policies and paint a picture either consciously or unconsciously as one who cannot dare cross paths with Museveni over their opposition.
On his part, Bobi already had a musical fan base before joining politics that was loyal to him and to them, choosing to take on General is no mean fit thus drawing admiration from many.
Even Amama who had just left the government, got believability because of the reports that showed him as one who had been building structures to catapult him into power.
“When Amama chose to oppose Museveni and contest against him, he came with this whole aura of respect even from NRM supporters who pledged loyalty to him making it easy for the former prime minister to get that likeability x-factor that HT lacks,” an analyst said.
Will Tumukunde succeed in convincing Ugandans especially those in the opposition that he is a worthy challenger to Museveni, only time will tell and what his strategy entails.