Uganda’s coffee industry is facing a fresh price and production squeeze, with the Government revealing that the price of commercial-grade Robusta has fallen by about 14.5 percent as increased global supplies, drought and weakening export volumes pile pressure on farmers and traders.
Agriculture Minister Frank K. Tumwebaze has moved to calm growing anxiety across the coffee and cocoa value chains, insisting that the current price turbulence does not signal the disappearance of demand but is largely being driven by changing global supply expectations and inventories.
The warning comes at a difficult moment for Uganda’s coffee sector, with official figures showing that coffee exports in July 2026 fell by 15 percent, while export earnings plunged by approximately 18.6 percent compared with July 2025.
ROBUSTA PRICE TAKES A SHS2,000 HIT
The Ministry says the sharpest pressure has been felt in Robusta, Uganda’s major commercial coffee type.
Robusta FAQ, considered the more appropriate benchmark for commercial-quality coffee, fell from between Shs13,500 and Shs14,000 per kilogramme in September 2025 to Shs11,500-Shs12,000 in the first half of September 2026.
The change represents a decline of about Shs2,000 per kilogramme, or approximately 14.5 percent.
Robusta Kiboko also declined from Shs6,000-Shs7,000 per kilogramme in September 2025 to Shs5,000-Shs6,000 in the first half of September 2026.
But the picture is not uniformly negative.
Arabica parchment actually increased from approximately Shs14,500 per kilogramme in 2025 to Shs15,750 in 2026, representing an increase of about 8.5 percent, while Drugar rose to between Shs14,000 and Shs14,500 per kilogramme.
BRAZIL AND VIETNAM TURN UP THE HEAT
The Government says Uganda’s coffee price movements cannot be viewed in isolation because coffee is traded on the international market.
Production levels, inventories, weather, shipping, currencies, consumption and purchasing decisions in major producing and consuming countries all influence what Ugandan farmers ultimately receive.
According to the Ministry, increased availability from Brazil and Vietnam has recently placed downward pressure on global coffee prices.
Brazil’s harvest has been coming onto the market while Vietnam’s exports have increased, adding to global supplies.
By September 3, 2026, Arabica had fallen to a five-week low of approximately US$3.03 per pound, while Robusta was trading at about US$3,426 per tonne.
The Ministry says the International Coffee Organization and USDA projections point to further growth in global coffee production in the 2026/27 season.
That means Uganda’s farmers could continue facing international price pressure if supplies keep expanding.
DROUGHT DEALS ANOTHER BLOW
But global competition is only part of Uganda’s problem.
The Ministry says prolonged drought and unusually high temperatures have hit several coffee-growing areas, including parts of Greater Masaka, Kyotera, Sembabule and Luwero.
The weather shock has affected flowering, cherry development, bean filling, processing out-turn and coffee quality.
In affected areas, the Government estimates that adverse weather has pushed coffee out-turn to approximately 10 percent below the normal average.
The production squeeze is already showing up in Uganda’s export statistics.
In July 2026, the country exported 846,376 bags of 60 kilogrammes, down from 997,105 bags in July 2025.
The result was a 15 percent decline in export volumes.
More strikingly, export earnings fell from US$250.7 million to US$204.1 million, wiping out about US$46.6 million in monthly export earnings compared with the same period a year earlier.
GOVERNMENT: FARMERS ARE NOT NECESSARILY MAKING LOSSES
Despite the falling prices, Tumwebaze says farmers should not automatically equate a lower selling price with making a loss.
He said profitability depends on production costs, productivity per acre, coffee quality, post-harvest handling and the form in which the coffee is sold.
The Ministry says some farming models can remain viable even when FAQ prices fall to Shs7,000 per kilogramme, provided farmers improve productivity and undertake basic value addition.
However, the Government acknowledges that farmers whose production has been severely affected by drought may suffer considerable financial losses.
TUMWEBAZE: DON’T PANIC
Tumwebaze has urged farmers not to lose confidence in coffee production, arguing that Uganda continues to attract international demand because of the quality and distinctive characteristics of its Robusta and Arabica.
But he issued a blunt warning to farmers against sacrificing quality in response to the price pressure.
Do not harvest immature coffee. Do not compromise quality.
The Minister also urged farmers to move beyond raw Kiboko and invest in better processing and grading, which he said can significantly improve returns.
COFFEE AND COCOA BOTH UNDER PRESSURE
The turbulence is not confined to coffee.
Cocoa prices have also experienced sharp movements on international markets.
The Ministry says London cocoa fell 5.9 percent in one session on September 3 after reaching a one-year high, while New York cocoa also dropped by 5.9 percent.
On September 18, December New York cocoa reportedly fell approximately 7.1 percent in one day, reaching a seven-week low.
The Government linked the correction partly to expectations of increased supplies, pointing to a 30 percent increase in Ivory Coast’s cocoa harvest for June 2025-June 2026 and higher shipments during the current international cocoa marketing year.
GOVERNMENT TURNS TO IRRIGATION AND INPUTS
With weather emerging as one of the biggest threats to production, Government says it is stepping up interventions designed to make farmers more resilient.
MAAIF says it will continue monitoring international and domestic prices while providing indicative market information to farmers and stakeholders.
The Ministry also plans to strengthen production and productivity through rehabilitation and establishment of coffee gardens and recovery mechanisms targeting drought and other climate shocks.
Government is supporting farmers with fertilisers and other productivity-enhancing inputs in key producing areas.
The fertiliser programme, implemented under a Presidential Directive, is intended to improve access to inputs, restore soil fertility and boost crop productivity.
Irrigation is also being positioned as a major weapon against climate variability.
MAAIF is working with the Ministry of Water and Environment and other government agencies to expand access to water for agricultural production, including through larger irrigation schemes and smaller farmer-managed systems.
Through the Climate Smart Agricultural Transformation Project, farmers are also being supported with improved planting materials, technologies, water-management practices and knowledge aimed at helping them adapt to changing weather conditions.
SIX MONTHS OF UNCERTAINTY AHEAD
The Government expects international market forces to continue determining the direction of coffee and cocoa prices over the next six months.
Brazil’s coffee harvest and Vietnam’s Robusta exports are expected to remain important influences on the Robusta market.
If global production continues rising, prices could remain under pressure. But weather disruptions or weaker-than-expected production in major producing countries could tighten supplies and push markets in the other direction.
For Uganda, the immediate challenge is to restore production following the drought while protecting quality and productivity.
The Ministry says adequate rainfall, combined with improved agronomic practices, should help restore flowering, cherry development and the quality of future harvests.
Despite the current turbulence, Tumwebaze says the Government expects some price recovery and greater stability over the coming six months.
MAAIF says it will announce further strategic interventions aimed at supporting farmers and other actors across Uganda’s coffee and cocoa value chains.
